Episode 1176: The Best Tape of Our Lives
Date February 15, 2018 Summary Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the installation of a humidor at Chase Field, how peak Ichiro would have hit at Coors Field, and what to make of reports about players in the best shape of their lives, then answer emails about which team performances would qualify as surprising in 2018, projecting players who’ve had hard times off the field, evaluating launch angles, how much better teams get when they go for broke, NPB teams poaching unsigned free agents, how many non-athletes a team of the best players in baseball could carry without being bad, and how to define a platoon, plus a Stat Blast on post-humidor Coors, a meditation on the free-agent market, and an update on Jose Ramirez’s mysterious Twitter handle. Topics * Projected surprises for the 2018 season * Impact of player personal lives on their performance * Launch angle and swing changes * How much better are teams in 'playoff' mode? * Non MLB teams signing available free agents * Fielding an extreme scrubs and stars team * Defining a platoon Intro Sparks, "Instant Weight Loss" Outro Yo La Tengo, "Is That Enough" Banter * Chase Field will be adding a humidor. Alan Nathan's research on the topic suggests that this could reduce home runs by upwards of 35%. * Thinking about pre-humidor Coors Field, Ben and Jeff contemplate Ichiro Suzuki's career if played in 2000 Coors. * There is discussion about Matt Kemp and players showing up to spring training in the 'best shape of their lives'. Email Questions * Roland: "What is the least that needs to happen for you to be surprised this season? What is the most likely projected event that could still be seen as a surprise?" * Rebecca: "Do you think there's any way to account for the impact of events in a player's personal life in longer term evaluation?" * David: What exactly are these players doing to change their launch angle?" * Sean: "If two .500 teams played each other 162 times but there was no fatigue effect for one team and the other was in playoff mode, what would the win/loss records be?" * Michael (Centennial, CO): "If this inactivity continues in the free agent market could Japanese teams take advantage and sign available free agents?" * Clark: "How many of the best players in baseball would you need to field a team if the rest of your team is filled with people right off the street?" * Ari: "When requirements need to be met for time sharing at a position to be called a platoon?" Stat Blast * Jeff looks at the various impacts of the installation of a humidor at Coors Field. * Overall Coors Field was 15% more neutral after the installation of a humidor. * Prior to the humidor there was 53% run inflation at Coors compared to league average. After the humidor installation run inflation was only 30% compared to league average. Notes * If Ichiro had played his entire career in pre-humidor Coors Field he would have been projected to hit above .400 four times. * Ben found that players noted to be in the best shape of their lives often got more playing time but did not necessarily hit better. * Jeff outlines two main ways players can change their launch angle: changing their swing plane or changing the types of pitches they swing at. * Ben and Jeff think that in order to be a true platoon the decision for playing time needs to be based on splits. Links * Effectively Wild Episode 1176: The Best Tape of Our Lives * Best Shape of His Life! by Ben Lindbergh * A Humidor at Chase Field: What's Up With That? by Alan Nathan * If Mike Trout Played His Entire Career in the Pecos League by Cam Cain Category:Episodes Category:Email Episodes